TRACTA: Benchmarking Temporal Reasoning over Semantic Trajectories

This paper introduces TRACTA (Temporal Reasoning and Capability-Trajectory Analysis), a knowledge-aligned synthetic benchmark for temporal structural reasoning, instantiated through Multi-Domain Operations (MDO)-like scenarios. It comes from a paper posted to arXiv on 16 September 2026. High-complexity operational environments require methods that characterize temporally distributed patterns rather than classify isolated events. TRACTA defines offline structural annotations over contextual direct-impact and accumulated capability trajectories and evaluates three tasks: early_warning, pattern_detection, and run_classification. The frozen comparison includes raw-event neural references, a contract-lite rule comparator, and a recurrent semantic-input reference. The semantic-input recurrent reference has the highest aggregate macro-F1 point estimates, with the largest margins on the two temporal tasks, while raw-event references remain predictive and lead in four individual early-warning target--lead settings. Component-zeroing diagnostics show that both semantic trajectory blocks contain useful signal within the evaluated recurrent configuration. Run-local aliasing removes stable cross-run target and location identities from the primary raw input, although executed diagnostics retain shallow predictivity. These results are configuration-level: semantic inputs are aligned with the benchmark's target-generation space, and the evaluated systems also differ in architecture, training, and available information. TRACTA therefore provides a reproducible testbed for examining knowledge-aligned temporal prediction, not evidence of a causal representation advantage, statistically resolved superiority, or operational readiness.

Why it counts

This paper introduces TRACTA (Temporal Reasoning and Capability-Trajectory Analysis), a knowledge-aligned synthetic benchmark for temporal structural reasoning, instantiated through Multi-Domain Operations (MDO)-like scenarios. These results are configuration-level: semantic inputs are aligned with the benchmark's target-generation space, and the evaluated systems also differ in architecture, training, and available information.

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What is not known

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