Phase Transition Frequency as a Training Time Predictor of Test Accuracy in ResNets

Under distributional stress, the relationship attenuates: TinyImageNet yields \(r = -0.45\), and the CIFAR-10-C corruption benchmark yields \(r = -0.19\). It comes from a paper posted to arXiv on 7 September 2026. The number of discrete class-separability jumps observed during ResNet finetuning is examined empirically as a predictor of final test accuracy. Across 75 experiments spanning four benchmarks (CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, TinyImageNet, and CIFAR-10-C) and three architectures (ResNet-18, ResNet-50, and ResNet-101), with five to ten seeds per configuration, a strong within-dataset negative correlation is obtained on standard i.i.d. classification benchmarks: \(r = -0.84\) on CIFAR-10 (\(p < 10^{-8}\), \(n = 30\)) and \(r = -0.87\) on CIFAR-100 (\(p < 10^{-5}\), \(n = 15\)). Two additional analyses discipline the empirical claim. A partial correlation controlling for architecture depth, treated as a linear covariate, shows that on CIFAR-100 the transition count retains statistically significant predictive power (\(r_{\mathrm{partial}} = -0.69\), \(p = 0.007\)); the corresponding result under the stricter categorical conditioning is not established at \(n = 15\). A comparison against six alternative training-curve signals shows that transition count achieved the strongest correlation among the evaluated signals on CIFAR-100 and one of the strongest on CIFAR-10, but is dominated by other signals on the two stressed benchmarks. The comparison is restricted to training-curve-level signals; comparisons against effective rank, Hessian sharpness, Fisher information, margin, and neural-collapse measures, which are the strongest competitors in the current literature, are not part of the present study and remain open. The observation is presented as an in-distribution training-quality probe among a family of candidate probes, and an inexpensive detection procedure suitable for logging alongside a standard training loop is provided.

Why it counts

Under distributional stress, the relationship attenuates: TinyImageNet yields \(r = -0.45\), and the CIFAR-10-C corruption benchmark yields \(r = -0.19\).

Sources

Primary source: primary source

What is not known

This brief does not claim independent replication. Claims that appear only on X and not in the primary source stay unknown.