Measurement-Error-Aware Causal Distributed-Lag Quantile Modeling of Indoor Air Pollution and

Sensor calibration reduced held-out exposure RMSE by 33.7 percent. It comes from a paper posted to arXiv on 29 September 2026. Low-cost indoor air-quality sensors could support personalized asthma prevention, but their nonlinear measurement error, delayed exposure effects, time-varying confounding, and heterogeneous lower-tail responses limit risk estimation. We present CAUSALQUANT-ASTHMA, a measurement-error-aware causal quantile distributed-lag framework for short-horizon peak expiratory flow analysis. Sparse reference measurements train a nonlinear calibration model; stabilized sequential generalized-propensity weights address measured exposure assignment; and a susceptibility-modulated, smooth, noncrossing quantile model estimates lag-specific and sustained-exposure contrasts. Because no authorized cohort simultaneously provided dense indoor sensing, reference co-location, and outcome-compatible longitudinal data, evaluation used five semi-synthetic panels with known counterfactual truth, 150 patients and 12,600 patient-days per realization. Across eight methods, CAUSALQUANT achieved a dose-response integrated absolute error of 0.304 plus or minus 0.094, improving 24.2 percent over the strongest measurement-error and propensity-weighted baseline. It also obtained the lowest overall pinball loss, 1.065, while maintaining zero quantile crossings and 78.1 percent coverage for the nominal 80 percent interval. Stress tests quantified degradation under sensor noise, missing personal measurements, and hidden confounding. These findings establish methodological feasibility and reproducibility, not clinical effectiveness; prospective, governance-approved external validation is required before patient-level interpretation or deployment.

Why it counts

Sensor calibration reduced held-out exposure RMSE by 33.7 percent.

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What is not known

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