INTERVenE: Temporal-Abstraction-Interval Based Transformers for Short-Horizon Medical Event

On 57,078 MIMIC-IV admissions, INTERVenE-Enc outperformed GRU-D, STraTS, and KarmaLego, reaching a support-weighted AUPRC of 0.672 ($+0.046$ over the strongest neural baseline, with non-overlapping 95\% bootstrap CIs), AUROC of 0.901, and length-of-stay MAE of 44.4\,h. It comes from a paper posted to arXiv on 16 October 2026. Electronic Health Record (EHR) prediction models in the intensive care unit must learn from sparse and irregular measurements while preserving the clinical meaning of time and supporting transparent decision-making. We present INTERVenE, a family of Transformer architectures whose input is an interval-based, knowledge-based temporal abstraction (KBTA), a token stream of named clinical concepts (states, trends, events, contexts) drawn from a curated medical ontology, rather than an unnamed bin index or a raw measurement triplet. This naming layer is what we ask KBTA to do: it makes the model's per-token attributions resolve to clinical concepts by construction. INTERVenE offers two complementary variants: an auto-regressive decoder that generates future abstraction trajectories with a per-step risk readout (localizing \emph{when} and \emph{after which events} risk rises), and a bidirectional encoder for single-pass joint risk and time-to-event prediction. INTERVenE-Ar complements these predictions with generated abstraction trajectories and evolving risk scores, achieving AUROC of 0.854 and AUPRC of 0.588 under the harder generative readout. An alternative-discretization ablation preserved predictive performance, supporting KBTA's role as a clinically named attribution substrate rather than a prerequisite for accuracy.

Why it counts

On 57,078 MIMIC-IV admissions, INTERVenE-Enc outperformed GRU-D, STraTS, and KarmaLego, reaching a support-weighted AUPRC of 0.672 ($+0.046$ over the strongest neural baseline, with non-overlapping 95\% bootstrap CIs), AUROC of 0.901, and length-of-stay MAE of 44.4\,h.

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What is not known

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