A Counterfactual Graph Approach to Oppositional Narrative Analysis

On the standard PAN Oppositional Narratives benchmark, our model achieves a macro F1-score of 0.93 and an MCC of 0.84, reaching state-of-the-art performance with roughly one-third of the parameters of the next best system, while pruning the graphs by 75.2% on average without altering predictions. It comes from a paper posted to arXiv on 14 October 2026. Distinguishing legitimate critical speech from coordinated conspiracy narratives is a pressing challenge for the integrity of the online information ecosystem, yet prevailing approaches rely on labeled entity roles and rigid predefined schemas that fail to capture the diffuse and context-dependent nature of participation in such narratives. We propose a modular framework that extracts an entity-interaction graph directly from narratives and reasons over it for classification, without depending on annotated node-level labels. Our pipeline enumerates candidate entity spans from a domain-adapted BERT encoder and learns a bipartite graph structure, which is then classified with a Heterogeneous Graph Transformer. To make predictions interpretable, we cast the graph as a hypergraph and apply a counterfactual distillation procedure that estimates the Individual Treatment Effect of each node, pruning extraneous entities to recover a minimal predictive subgraph. Our results demonstrate that graph-based representations coupled with counterfactual inference offer both strong predictive accuracy and transparency into the entities driving conspiratorial discourse.

Why it counts

On the standard PAN Oppositional Narratives benchmark, our model achieves a macro F1-score of 0.93 and an MCC of 0.84, reaching state-of-the-art performance with roughly one-third of the parameters of the next best system, while pruning the graphs by 75.2% on average without altering predictions.

Sources

Primary source: primary source

What is not known

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